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The fate of the British pound, at least at the beginning of the week, will depend on the market's reaction to geopolitical events in the Middle East. I want to remind you that this weekend marked the start of not only a full-scale war between Iran and US allies but also between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Two full-fledged military conflicts that the market had no opportunity to react to earlier. Should we expect the US currency to strengthen? In my opinion, there is no need to rush with trades, conclusions, or decisions. Monday is likely to open with a gap. Depending on which direction the gap forms and where the dollar moves overnight, we will be able to understand how the market feels about these two new "hot spots" on the map.
Recall that the GBP/USD instrument is at a crossroads. If the mark of 1.3451, which is equivalent to 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale, does not hold, then the downward wave structure that began at the end of January will likely adopt a more extended form. Personally, I would like to avoid such a scenario because the wave picture has looked almost perfect since last November. I wouldn't want to spoil it with complicated corrective structures.
The news backdrop in the UK next week will be rather weak. Aside from all the final estimates for the purchasing managers' indices in the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors, there will be nothing particularly interesting published by our neighbors in the Eurozone. Consequently, market attention will be concentrated on geopolitics and US news. And there will be plenty of news in the US. Donald Trump, like a seasoned commentator, shares his opinions on the events in Iran almost every few hours, continuing to threaten and demand complete capitulation. Additionally, reports on business activity, the labor market, and unemployment will be released in the US. It is likely to be a very interesting week. In my opinion, the pound is well positioned to begin forming a new upward wave structure.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current trend segment could stretch up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of the global wave 5, thus I expect an increase in quotations in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing shape. I believe it is now prudent to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument presents a clear view. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective set of waves may finish soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise searching for opportunities for new purchases with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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