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The upcoming week may begin with renewed strength in the US dollar across the market. In fact, this is merely a speculation shared by many analysts and economists over the weekend. The reason for this is that a joint attack by Israel and the US on Iran began overnight Saturday, and the entire Middle East has been on fire for over a day. Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are also opposing Iran. Missiles are flying in both directions every few hours, and the war seems to be going for total annihilation, as missiles are hitting not only government buildings and military facilities. It's hard to say how the market will react to this event on Monday night, but one must agree it is not an ordinary occurrence.
Regarding the economic news backdrop, there will be many interesting reports next week, but how will they correlate with geopolitical news? What will the market pay more attention to, and will there be anything to pay attention to at all? In February, we observed extremely low activity in the currency market, despite the fact that there were quite a few important events last month. Therefore, if the market has no intention of opening positions for some reason, even if World War III begins, we may not see any movements.
In Europe, I can highlight the upcoming speech by Christine Lagarde next week, who will certainly address the situation in the Middle East, as well as the February inflation report, which caused quite a stir last month, retail sales, and fourth-quarter GDP (final figures). In my opinion, the inflation report will be the most crucial, as Christine Lagarde recently stated that 1.7% year-on-year is not a reason to resume the cycle of monetary policy easing. However, inflation could very well drop below 1.7%, and returning to 2% would be quite challenging from the other side.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current trend segment could stretch up to the 25th figure. At this point, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5; hence, I expect an increase in quotations in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument presents a clear view. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective set of waves may finish soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise searching for opportunities for new purchases with targets set above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound stands a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward segment of the trend does not appear to be completed.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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