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The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited unexpected movement on Thursday. The macroeconomic background was absent that day, and the fundamental one as well, but at the same time, the price broke through the descending channel at least twice, allowing the pair to grow. However, as has often been the case lately, the market found another reason to buy dollars. By Thursday evening, it became known that yet another round of negotiations between Iran and the US ended without results. Tehran rejected Washington's nuclear deal, which increased the likelihood of a US military intervention to nearly 100%. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the dollar appreciated once again. Additionally, yesterday, Pakistan began military actions against Afghanistan, further increasing the demand for safe-haven assets, of which the dollar can still be considered, albeit with significant reservations. As we can see, only geopolitics supports the American currency, although even this factor has its own expiration date.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, one trading signal was formed that novice traders could have acted upon. Early in the Asian trading session, the price bounced off the area of 1.1830-1.1837, but at the opening of the European session, the price had hardly moved away from the point where the signal was formed. Thus, a short position could have been opened. The nearest target area, 1.1745-1.1754, was not reached, but traders could close their positions manually in profit by evening.
On the hourly timeframe, the downward trend has been canceled as the price has settled above the descending channel. At the beginning of 2026, the long-term upward trend has resumed, so we expect a new medium-term rise of the euro. The overall fundamental background remains very challenging for the US currency, so we fully support further movement to the north.
On Friday, novice traders can consider short positions in the event of a bounce from the 1.1830-1.1837 area, targeting 1.1745-1.1754. A price consolidation above the 1.1830-1.1837 area will allow opening long positions with a target of 1.1899-1.1908.
On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, and 1.2092-1.2104. On Friday, Germany will publish inflation reports, unemployment figures, and jobless claims. In the US, the Producer Price Index will be released. We do not expect a strong market reaction to these reports, as geopolitics currently takes priority for the market.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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