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The GBP/USD pair also traded logically only at the market open on Monday after the weekend. Throughout the day, there was again a strengthening of the American currency, which cannot be connected to anything specific. However, according to the current trend on the hourly timeframe, everything is logical. The British pound continues to decline amid weak UK data, while the U.S. dollar keeps rising on any data. Therefore, while the current movement may still be termed logical from a technical standpoint, it is not from a fundamental or macroeconomic perspective. Thus, as before, we only expect the pair to rise, but for that to happen, at least a breakthrough of the trend line is now required. This week, there will be relatively few important events and reports, and Donald Trump's renewed trade war has not posed any issues for the dollar. Thus, the best approach now is to trade without being tied to fundamentals and macroeconomics, focusing on technical levels and areas.
On the 5-minute timeframe, five trading signals were generated on Monday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price bounced off the area of 1.3529-1.3543, then dropped and broke through the area of 1.3484-1.3489. However, the subsequent decline was short-lived. Just 30 minutes later, a buy signal formed. Nonetheless, the short position still yielded a profit. The price subsequently bounced off the 1.3484-1.3489 area twice more, but we did not see any significant movement afterward.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. There are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect the global upward trend from 2025 to continue in 2026, which may push the pair to at least the 1.4000 mark. In recent weeks, the situation has frequently played against the British currency, but the market has not factored in any negativity from the U.S.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider opening long positions if the pair consolidates above the area of 1.3484-1.3489, with a target of 1.3529-1.3543. A price consolidation below the area of 1.3484-1.3489 will allow for opening short positions with a target of 1.3437-1.3446.
On the 5-minute timeframe, it is currently possible to trade around the levels of 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3365, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, 1.3741-1.3751, 1.3814-1.3832, 1.3891-1.3912, 1.3975. On Tuesday, there are no major events scheduled in the UK or the U.S., aside from the weekly ADP labor market report. Therefore, volatility today is unlikely to be high.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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