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19.02.202609:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 19. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 153.86 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 154.24.

Good data from the US industrial sector and housing market prompted dollar purchases against the Japanese yen. This trend was not disrupted by figures showing a sharp increase in machinery and equipment orders in Japan. Traditionally, an increase in capital goods orders indicates heightened business investment activity and serves as a bellwether for future economic growth. It was expected that this could support the Japanese currency; however, the dollar seems to be in much greater demand. The fact that the Fed is not in a rush to lower interest rates, as evident from yesterday's meeting minutes, allows the dollar to continue demonstrating strength against the Japanese yen. Thus, even positive news from Japan could not compensate for this stronger dollar factor.

As for the intraday strategy, I will lean more towards implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 155.37 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.95 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 155.95, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.05 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth towards opposing levels of 155.37 and 155.95 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 155.05 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.71 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from the level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.37 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease toward opposing levels of 155.05 and 154.71 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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