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On Wednesday, gold is demonstrating moderate intraday growth above $5100. Expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve are putting pressure on the dollar, making it the primary driver of support for the yellow metal. However, the sustained bullish sentiment in the markets may limit the growth potential of this safe-haven asset.
On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau reported that retail sales stagnated in December. This indicator, which replaced November's 0.6% increase, fell short of market expectations (0.4% growth). Amid signs of a cooling labor market, analysts were forced to revise their Q4 GDP forecasts downward, intensifying speculation about additional rate cuts from the Fed. As a result, money markets are already pricing in a 58 basis point easing in 2026, continuing to apply pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, questions about the Fed's independence have intensified following a statement from US President Donald Trump on Saturday regarding a potential lawsuit against his nominee for the head of the agency, Kevin Warsh, if he refuses to lower interest rates. Additionally, Fed President Stephen Miran emphasized that full central bank independence is unattainable. This news overshadowed the firm rhetoric from regional Fed heads Lori Logan and Beth Hammack and did not provide support for the dollar bulls. Consequently, gold's path of least resistance remains upward.
Dallas Fed President Lori Logan noted the stabilization of the labor market, the dissipating of recession risks, and sustained inflation above the 2% target for nearly 5 years. According to her, the current policy is close to neutral and exerts minimal restrictive influence. In turn, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that the Fed's key interest rate is already in neutral territory, allowing the central bank to monitor trends calmly. She added that, given the high inflation, such a policy may remain unchanged for an extended period.
However, the gold bulls are refraining from aggressive moves, as the number of jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) increased by 130,000, exceeding market consensus (around 70,000) and the revised December figure (48,000). The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4%. Average hourly earnings accelerated by 0.4% in January compared to 0.1% in December, surpassing expectations of 0.3%; on a year-on-year basis, it remained at 3.7%, slightly above the forecast of 3.6%. This wage dynamic highlights inflationary pressure. However, such indicators reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Thus, the gold bulls find themselves in a state of uncertainty. Meanwhile, a fundamental bullish backdrop, combined with signs of reduced geopolitical tension in the Middle East, also restrains the rally of the safe-haven asset. Therefore, it is advisable to wait for confirmation of buying pressure before entering long positions.
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has shown resilience below the round $5000 level and the 9-day EMA. All moving averages on the daily chart are rising, indicating bullish sentiment.
Oscillators are positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60 reflects consolidation, so it is wise to wait for a confident breakout above $5100 before opening long positions.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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