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The EUR/USD currency pair began a sharp upward move on Monday. There was no macroeconomic or fundamental backdrop that day, except for a report from China in which the government "recommended" that Chinese banks refrain from investing in American securities. This report may have reduced demand for the American dollar in the market again. However, the dollar had plenty of reasons to fall even without this. Recall that a few weeks ago, the pair left a seven-month flat phase, which was a significant moment. The long-term upward trend has resumed, so we should only expect the pair to grow. Of course, there will be corrections; we just saw one last week. But overall, we expect the euro to rise above the 20 level soon. In 2026, there is no limit to the pair's growth. The more questionable and controversial decisions Donald Trump makes, the more the dollar will decline in the eyes of the world.
On the 5-minute timeframe, one excellent signal was formed on Monday at the very beginning of the European trading session. The price broke through the 1.1830-1.1837 range, allowing beginner traders to open relatively simple long positions. By the beginning of the American session, the area of 1.1899-1.1908 was worked out and surpassed. Thus, traders could close their long positions at good profits or leave them open, hoping for even greater gains.
On the hourly timeframe, a downward correction is ongoing, which could soon transform back into an upward movement. Remember that the flat phase that lasted for 7 months has ended. If so, the long-term upward trend has resumed at the beginning of 2026. Thus, we expect a new medium-term decline in the dollar. The overall fundamental backdrop remains very challenging for the American currency, so we fully support further movement to the north.
On Tuesday, beginning traders may consider short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.1899-1.1908 area, with a target of 1.1830-1.1837. A price consolidation above the area of 1.1899-1.1908 allows remaining in longs with a target of 1.1970.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1899-1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, there are no significant events planned in the Eurozone, while in the US, ADP (weekly) and retail sales reports will be published. These reports may provoke a slight reaction but are unlikely to impact overall market sentiment significantly.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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