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06.02.202619:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Analysis on February 6, 2026

Relevance up to 12:00 2026-02-07 UTC--5

Exchange Rates 06.02.2026 analysis

The wave count on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has undergone minor changes, but nothing fundamentally has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward segment of the trend that began in January of last year; only the internal wave structure is adjusted from time to time. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of the global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, the formation of wave 5 has now begun and is ongoing. This wave may become quite extended, with targets reaching as high as the 2.50 level.

The internal wave structure of the presumed wave 5 is not entirely clear (upper chart). The upward wave sequence cannot be considered impulsive due to fairly strong corrective waves. Therefore, at this stage it is interpreted as an a-b-c-d-e structure. However, if wave 5 becomes extended, its internal structure will also be quite complex. As a result, we may currently be observing the formation of wave 3 within wave 3 of wave 5. In any case, I expect further appreciation of the EUR/USD pair, although in the coming days the market may focus on building one or several corrective waves.

The EUR/USD pair recovered by approximately 30 basis points during Friday, but the amplitude of price movements has been extremely weak for several consecutive days. By and large, meaningful movement in the euro was observed only on Monday. After that, neither EU inflation data, nor the ECB meeting, nor the JOLTS, ADP, and ISM reports in the US were able to move the pair off dead center. As a result, the current week brought no clarity. According to wave analysis, the picture remains ambiguous due to the corrective nature of the current decline. Let me remind you that it can be a classic three-wave correction, or it may turn out to be a single wave within a complex global wave 5. That is why, in my reviews, I say that in the near future traders should be looking for new buying opportunities. Especially since this week has shown that the probability of seeing several rounds of monetary policy easing by the Fed in 2026 is much higher than seeing even a single rate cut by the ECB.

This week, only two out of the four scheduled US labor market reports were released. Thanks to the "shutdown." The publication of Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate has been postponed until next week. However, the JOLTS and ADP reports already allow us to assume that there is little good to be expected from the yet-to-be-published data. Of course, both reports could show higher-than-expected figures and trigger another strengthening of the US dollar. However, this would not change the overall condition of the US labor market from bad to good. If this assumption is correct, the Fed will have to resume its easing cycle. And what happens after May is difficult to even speculate about at this point.

Exchange Rates 06.02.2026 analysis

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis conducted, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward segment of the trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors weighing on the US dollar in the long term. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 2.50 level. At the moment, I believe that the formation of the global wave 5 has begun and is ongoing, therefore I expect prices to rise in the first half of 2026. However, in the near term I expect a downward wave (or a series of waves), as the a-b-c-d-e structure also appears complete. In the near future, my readers may begin searching for areas and levels for new buy positions.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts rather than rigidly tying analysis to every single wave. At present, the bullish wave structure raises no doubts.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply changes.
  2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
  3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty about market direction, and there never will be. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026
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