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The EUR/USD pair has reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and returned to the bullish imbalance 12, which acts as support for the bullish trend and represents the only area of interest for traders. A similar imbalance is present in the GBP/USD pair, and it was also worked through earlier this week. Thus, a new bullish signal for traders may be formed in the near future. Let me remind you that the bullish trend remains in place, which means that any buy signal is not just a signal—it is a trend signal.
I would also like to note that the current decline in the pair looks somewhat unjustified from a fundamental perspective. However, the price reacted to the weekly bearish imbalance, which I had been pointing to as a target for quite some time. Therefore, the decline in quotes over the past few days can be explained by technical analysis. There has been little news so far this week, and the only important report—the U.S. ISM business activity index—triggered a natural reaction from the bears. However, the overall fundamental background remains negative for the dollar.
The technical picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact. A bullish signal was formed in imbalance 11, and a bit later, a new imbalance 12 appeared. Now traders should expect either a new buy signal from imbalance 12 or an invalidation of this pattern. Thus, the pair is currently at a kind of crossroads: either the trend will logically continue, or it will be put on pause.
The fundamental background on Wednesday allowed bears to continue their attacks, as the eurozone consumer price index fell to 1.7%. The ECB meeting will take place tomorrow, and I do not rule out that Christine Lagarde may hint at a possible interest rate cut in the near future. Thus, declining inflation is not a very pleasant factor for the euro, but for now it is being held back from further decline by the bullish imbalance. I hope that this imbalance will also provide support tomorrow.
The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new offensive for already 6–7 months, and with each passing week there are only more of them. These include the (in any case) dovish prospects of the FOMC's monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No Kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, the autumn "shutdown" (which lasted a month and a half), and the new shutdown that began in February. There is also U.S. military aggression toward certain countries, criminal prosecution of Powell, the "Greenland confusion," and worsening relations with Canada and South Korea. Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair will be entirely natural.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The fundamental background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I am not even trying to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered finished. Bears would need to push the price down by about 400 pips to reach it, and I consider this task impossible under the current fundamental backdrop and circumstances. The nearest upward target for the euro was the bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021. This pattern was fully filled last week. Above that, only two levels can be identified—1.2348 and 1.2564. These levels are two peaks on the monthly chart, from which the price could potentially sweep liquidity.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone
On February 5, the economic calendar contains five events, three of which (the latter ones) can be considered important. The impact of the fundamental background on market sentiment may be present on Thursday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice
In my view, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the fundamental background remains on the side of the bulls, bears have regularly launched attacks in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.
From imbalances 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8, and 9, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth, and the bullish trend remained intact. Last week, a new bullish signal was formed from imbalance 11, which once again allowed traders to open buy positions with a target of 1.1976. The target was reached. Later, another bullish imbalance 12 was formed, and this week traders may receive a new opportunity for buying.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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