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04.02.202611:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin falls, gold rises, and billions flow into AI

Relevance up to 03:00 2026-02-06 UTC--5

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

The past weeks have posed a challenge for global financial markets. Gold prices are surging in response to escalating geopolitical tensions, cryptocurrencies are under a double blow, Bitcoin and Ethereum are plunging sharply, and Nvidia is ready to invest $20 billion in OpenAI.

Gold rises as global anxiety grows: the metal gains more than 2% in a day Global markets were shaken again: amid rising geopolitical tension and a fragile dollar, gold prices jumped more than 2% on Wednesday, recording one of the fastest recoveries in recent years as investors raced into precious metals as a traditional safe haven.

According to Reuters, spot gold jumped 2.2% Wednesday morning to $5,044.74 per ounce, continuing an astounding 5.9% surge the previous day — the strongest one?day gain since November 2008. Over two days gold gained more than 8% as instability rippled through equity and commodity markets.

The explosive rise in precious metals reflects a sharp geopolitical flashpoint. The US confirmed that a Navy fighter had shot down an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. That incident not only increased tensions in the Middle East but also jeopardized the planned nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, FXStreet reports. Investors reacted to heightened risks by shifting capital from riskier assets into stable gold.

"The market went too far down after President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. Today's rise is essentially a bounce from oversold levels," explains Peter Fertig, analyst at Quantitative Commodity Research.

Gold surges amid global anxiety: the metal is up more than 2% daily

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

Panic hit markets on Friday after Warsh — seen as inclined toward tight monetary policy — was nominated. That move triggered a wave of selling: gold lost about 10% in a single day, silver plunged 27% and platinum also showed record drops. Investors priced in the possibility of tighter financial conditions, which traditionally reduces demand for gold?like assets.

However, against the backdrop of a worsening international environment and pessimism in FX markets, gold has recouped losses and is pushing higher again.

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

Conclusions and opportunities for traders

The current situation demonstrates how sensitive global markets remain to political statements and geopolitical shocks. Gold remains one of the most reliable assets in times of uncertainty. Volatility provides traders with unique opportunities for profitable trades over short and medium horizons.

Traders can use the current dynamics to go long on gold or other precious metals, including silver and platinum, which are also affected by the general correction. Trading with limit orders may be particularly effective given high intraday volatility.

All instruments described are available on the InstaSpot platform. To access these opportunities, open a trading account and use the InstaSpot mobile app to monitor prices and trade anytime.

BlackRock shakes the crypto market: $600m transfers amplify Bitcoin and Ethereum sell?off

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

A new wave of instability hit the crypto market: large transfers of Bitcoin and Ethereum linked to BlackRock Inc. stirred speculation. Transfers of more than $600 million to the Coinbase exchange in early February prompted concerns about possible selling pressure related to ETF dynamics.

On February 2, funds associated with BlackRock moved thousands of BTC and tens of thousands of ETH to exchanges. Analysts say some of these assets may be sold amid the market downturn. After these movements, Bitcoin sank below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, CNBC reports, underscoring the sector's weakness this week.

Large on?chain transfers to exchanges are often read as preludes to sell?offs, but experts warn against over?interpreting them. Many such transactions may be technical flows tied to ETF share creation and redemption mechanisms.

Finbold reports that BlackRock's activity coincided with significant outflows from its products — iShares Bitcoin Trust and iShares Ethereum Trust. Lookonchain data show that BlackRock's structure was among the largest contributors to ETF redemptions in the period.

Ethereum was especially affected by the end?January pressure: according to Phemex, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs lost $327 million over the week, with $264 million coming from BlackRock's ETHA product alone.

SEC filings add to the picture: hedge fund Pilgrim Partners Asia cut its ETHA position by more than $16.21 million in Q4 2024, which may indicate risk reassessment by some institutional players.

Oracle prepares an investment sprint: up to $50bn to expand AI cloud infrastructure. Nvidia ready to invest $20bn in OpenAI to bolster AI leadership.

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

In parallel with market turbulence, breakthrough news came from the tech sector: Nvidia is reportedly prepared to invest $20 billion in OpenAI to strengthen its leadership in the global AI race.

This article examines how these events interact, the unique market backdrop and the new opportunities opening up across asset classes.

Key takeaways:

  • Large transfers of digital assets linked to BlackRock are increasing uncertainty in the crypto market and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • The current activity may be part of a technical process rather than a direct decision to sell; however, the market reacts sharply to such signals.
  • Capital outflows from ETFs, especially ETHA, reflect waning interest from institutional investors.

At the same time, volatility in the crypto market creates new opportunities for traders. During periods of strong price movements, traders can profit from short-term fluctuations—both upward and downward. Opening short or long positions, using market orders, and trading around support and resistance levels can all be profitable strategies in an unstable market environment.

Bitcoin's sharpest plunge: how the Fed chair nomination and geopolitics crashed the crypto market

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

On Tuesday, cryptocurrency markets came under heavy pressure: Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling below the $73,000 level. This marked the deepest drop for the digital currency in nearly a year and a half. Selling pressure, macroeconomic factors, and strengthening bearish sentiment shook the market, leading to massive liquidations worth billions of dollars.

Bitcoin briefly touched $72,884 during trading—its lowest level since November 6, 2024, when BTC fell to $68,898. The sell-off triggered a cascade of forced liquidations in the derivatives market totaling between $2.2 billion and $2.56 billion in just one day, according to analytical platforms.

The decline exceeded 40% from the all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. Notably, the current drop has completely wiped out all the gains Bitcoin posted after Donald Trump's victory in the November 2024 presidential election, despite his ambitious statements about turning the United States into the "global capital of cryptocurrencies."

The market also reacted to Trump's political move: on January 30, he nominated Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Known as a proponent of tight monetary policy, Warsh is perceived by investors as a signal of potential tightening of financial conditions.

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen noted that "markets see Warsh as a bearish signal for Bitcoin: his push for monetary discipline and reduced liquidity makes cryptocurrencies less attractive to investors."

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

Volatility was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum led in terms of liquidation volume, with about $961 million wiped out, followed by Bitcoin with $679 million in liquidated positions, according to Coinglass. Reuters analysts emphasized that such large-scale liquidations indicate a "growing sensitivity of the crypto market to risk-off sentiment."

Overall investor sentiment deteriorated further amid geopolitical tensions and a broad retreat from risk assets. Traditional markets also came under pressure: U.S. stock indices closed lower. The technology sector was hit particularly hard—Salesforce.com shares plunged 8%, while Thomson Reuters stock lost nearly 20% amid concerns that artificial intelligence is undermining traditional business models.

Conclusions and opportunities for traders

Financial markets are entering a phase of heightened turbulence. The nomination of a potential Fed Chair with hawkish views, geopolitical instability, and fears surrounding disruptive technologies are shaping new reference points for investors. Cryptocurrencies, traditionally sensitive to liquidity risk, are showing weakness, but at the same time, they offer traders opportunities for active trading amid high volatility.

Traders can use the current environment for short-term speculation, both on market declines and potential rebounds. Opening short positions, applying options-based strategies, and trading Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives can be effective ways to profit from the current dynamics.

Nvidia ready to invest $20 nillion in OpenAI: a powerful boost for the AI market

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

Graphics processor manufacturer Nvidia is preparing to make the largest corporate investment in the artificial intelligence sector to date. The company is close to finalizing a deal to invest $20 billion in the latest funding round of OpenAI, the developer of the popular AI chatbot ChatGPT. Bloomberg reports this, citing sources familiar with the negotiations.

Although the deal has not yet been nailed down and its terms may change, investors and analysts are already closely watching developments that could dramatically reshape the balance of power in the AI and high-tech markets.

While the parties have not disclosed details of the agreement, it is known that the $20 billion will be part of a broader partnership between Nvidia and OpenAI announced in September 2025. At that time, the companies signed a memorandum of understanding worth up to $100 billion, aimed at building powerful AI data centers.

These centers, with a combined capacity of 10 gigawatts, will be built using Nvidia's GPUs. According to preliminary terms, Nvidia's investments will be made in stages, as each gigawatt of infrastructure is brought online.

Exchange Rates 04.02.2026 analysis

Earlier, media reports suggested a possible cooling of relations between the two tech giants. The Wall Street Journal reported that negotiations had allegedly been paused. However, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang denied these rumors in an interview with CNBC on February 2, stating that "there is no drama" and that the partnership with OpenAI is moving "in the right direction."

OpenAI, for its part, is actively expanding its financial cushion to support the development and scaling of its AI technologies. The company aims to raise up to $100 billion, which could lead to a valuation of $750–830 billion.

Other tech giants have also shown interest in investing, including Microsoft, which already owns a 27% stake in OpenAI (worth about $135 billion), and Amazon, which is discussing potential investments of up to $20 billion.

Previously, in March 2025, OpenAI closed a record $40 billion funding round, with SoftBank as the lead investor contributing $30 billion. Since then, OpenAI's audience has continued to grow and now exceeds 700 million weekly active users.

However, despite rapid growth and capital inflows, the company faces harsh realities. According to forecasts, OpenAI could record losses of up to $14 billion in 2026, mainly due to high operating costs and expenses related to maintaining cloud-based AI infrastructure.

Key takeaways

The deal between Nvidia and OpenAI could become a historic milestone for the global AI market as well as for the equity and investment sectors. A $20 billion investment would confirm not only Nvidia's strategic commitment to strengthening its position in AI, but also the continued confidence of major market players in OpenAI's potential.

Traders and investors closely following AI and big data news may want to pay attention to volatility in the shares of Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, as well as to stock indices and ETFs focused on the technology sector. Strong interest in AI companies could fuel growth in these assets and create opportunities for speculative trading or long-term investment.

How to profit from the situation

Traders can leverage the current news wave by trading CFDs on technology stocks, as well as speculating on ETFs that track the AI industry. Increased interest in such instruments during high-profile events boosts volatility and opens up opportunities for profit in both the short and medium term.

All trading instruments described in this article are available for trading on the InstaSpot platform. To get started, you need to open a trading account on the company's website. To stay on top of market developments and respond quickly to events, we also recommend installing the InstaSpot mobile app on your smartphone.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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