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04.02.202606:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on February 4? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Tuesday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with low volatility on Tuesday, with no significant decrease. Recall that over the past five days, the US dollar has been rising quite actively, and the trend has even changed to a downward one after the ascending trend line was breached. But was such growth justified? In terms of technical factors, yes. Corrections have always been an integral part of a trend. In terms of macroeconomic factors, to some extent, yes, because recent US reports have indeed brought positive news. However, from a fundamental perspective, no. Nothing has changed for the dollar on a global scale. Yet even global fundamental factors cannot pressure the dollar every day. Therefore, within the framework of the upward trend, we saw a technical correction. This week, traders will need to understand how long the "shutdown" will last, whether the US will strike Iran, and the state of the US labor market. These topics define trader sentiment and the direction of the pair's movement.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Tuesday. In the evening, the price nearly worked out the area of 1.1830-1.1837, but by that time, it was unlikely worth opening new trades. Today, beginner traders can trade from this area, as the price is situated right around it.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the downward correction continues. Recall that the flat phase lasting 7 months can be considered completed. If so, a long-term upward trend has been restored at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, we expect a new decline for the dollar. The overall fundamental background remains very challenging for the US currency, so we firmly support further upward movement for the euro.

On Wednesday, beginner traders may open short positions if there is a rebound from the area of 1.1830-1.1837, targeting 1.1745-1.1754. A price consolidation above the 1.1830-1.1837 area will allow for long positions with a target at 1.1908.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, 1.2092-1.2104. Today, beginner traders should pay attention to three important reports: the Eurozone inflation report, as well as the ADP and ISM reports for the US services sector. Inflation in the EU may slow to levels at which the ECB will have to contemplate resuming rate cuts. The American reports are important in their own right.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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