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The test of the price at 1.3686 occurred as the MACD indicator began its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair declined towards the target level of 1.3648.
The positive data from the ISM Index in the US yesterday triggered a new wave of dollar purchases. Market players interpreted this as a signal for potential economic strengthening, despite ongoing concerns about inflation. The ISM Index, an important indicator of business activity, exceeded expectations, signaling growth in the manufacturing sector and creating a favorable environment for the US dollar to appreciate.
Today, there are no scheduled statistical data for the UK, so the pound may continue its correction after yesterday's sell-off. This means that market attention will shift to other factors influencing the dynamics of the British currency. First and foremost, traders will closely monitor the overall sentiment towards risk assets. In the absence of macroeconomic data, risk appetite may become the dominant factor. If traders lean toward risk, this could support the pound, as it is often viewed as riskier than the US dollar or Japanese yen. Secondly, any unexpected political news or statements from the UK may significantly impact the pound. Thirdly, technical analysis will also play a role. Today, it is essential to analyze charts and support and resistance levels more carefully to make decisions about buying or selling the pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches around 1.3700 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.3727 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3727 level, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from this level). Growth in the pound today can only be expected within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3675 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3700 and 1.3727.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level to 1.3675 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3645 level, at which point I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from this level). Pound sellers will emerge in the case of a strong recovery of the pair towards major resistance levels. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its descent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3700 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3675 and 1.3645.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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