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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very quietly throughout Monday. Of course, market activity increased slightly during the American trading session for two reasons. First, the ISM Manufacturing Index for the US was released. Second, the so-called "Epstein files," which contain over 3 million records with a large number of names of well-known Americans, including Trump, were published in the US over the weekend. Undoubtedly, scandals and intrigues of this nature do not relate to the currency market, but this news still provoked protests and riots across America.
It is noteworthy that the American people have protested against Donald Trump multiple times before. Personally, we do not recall any protests or rallies against Obama or Biden. During Trump's year in office, America has seen at least four different types of protests related to immigration, trade policy, and Trump's very presence. As we can see, the current US president is not liked by everyone, both around the world and within the United States. In our opinion, there is nothing surprising about this. Perhaps, on paper, Americans have become better off under Trump, as America now shows "unprecedented economic growth," "fighting drug trafficking," "removing years of accumulated injustice from other countries towards America," "returning historically American territories" (Greenland), "contributing to the end of wars around the world" (Trump has counted at least eight wars that he has ended), "deporting immigrants" (legal or illegal—doesn't matter), "bringing American companies back home," "increasing exports, improving the trade balance," and generally doing everything to make the country thrive.
However, if ordinary taxpayers were truly better off, they would hardly be rioting and protesting. Under Trump, many goods and services in the US have sharply increased in price due to import duties. If anyone is unaware, all of Trump's tariffs are paid by Americans themselves, as the tariffs are incorporated into the final price of goods or services. Demand for foreign goods certainly falls, but it is not China or the EU paying the tariffs; it's Americans who pay. Consequently, their expenditures have increased, expenses on government services have risen (Trump has raised the cost of many services), many social and medical programs have been cut, while incomes have not increased. Thus, we are not surprised by this development.
As for the currency market, the EUR/USD pair began correcting last week and remains in this state for now. This week, many important data will be published, and there will be meetings of two central banks. Trump could order a strike against Iran at any moment, and only God knows what new tariffs the American president plans to introduce and against whom. Overall, we still do not see any basis for the dollar to rise. Despite the fairly strong pullback, the upward trend remains, as clearly seen on the daily and weekly timeframes.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of February 3 is 138 pips and is characterized as "high." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1666 and 1.1942 on Tuesday. The higher linear regression channel points upwards, indicating further growth in the euro. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone and formed two "bearish" divergences, signaling an impending pullback. Note how volatility increased as soon as the pair left the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830.
S1 – 1.1719
S2 – 1.1597
S3 – 1.1475
R1 – 1.1841
R2 – 1.1963
R3 – 1.2085
The EUR/USD pair has begun a strong correction within an upward trend. The global fundamental background remains extremely negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. There is no fundamental basis for the dollar's long-term growth. When the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with a target at 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1963 and 1.2085.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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