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The euro finished the week on a down note, having decreased from the highs by 230 basis points. In my opinion, everything is proceeding according to the previously stated wave scenario. The EUR/USD instrument has formed a five-wave structure, similar (though impulsive) to that of the GBP/USD instrument, suggesting the creation of a corrective wave or set of waves for both instruments. This is exactly what we observed at the end of the current week. Consequently, the decline in quotes and (most importantly) the strengthening of the US dollar do not necessarily have any obvious reasons behind them. Recently, the market has become accustomed to linking movements with specific news and events. However, the market does not always move solely based on events and news.
Next week will be full of events, and potentially even more. Let's start with the economy and the Eurozone. The ECB meeting is scheduled for next week. Although market participants do not expect any changes in monetary policy, this event is still significant. Take, for example, Christine Lagarde's speech. In recent months, inflation in the Eurozone has been gradually slowing, and there is a risk it could fall below the target of 2%. The ECB cannot allow this, so we may hear hints from Lagarde about further regulatory actions.
Inflation reports will also be released in the Eurozone, suggesting that the January figure may decrease from 1.9% year-on-year to 1.7%. A decline in inflation could lead to a decline in the euro, which fits well with the corrective scenario. Additional reports on retail sales and industrial production in Germany will also be published.
Non-economic news is related to Donald Trump. Trump may once again criticize the Fed, launch a special operation against Iran, impose new tariffs, assert claims over any territories, threaten to exit NATO, and so on... Each of these events could affect the value of the US dollar, and thus the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current section of the trend can reach the 25 figure. At this moment, I believe that the global wave 4 has completed its formation, so I expect further increases in quotes. However, in the near term, I expect a downward wave, as the series of waves a-b-c-d-e also appears to be complete. Soon, my readers may want to look for benchmarks for new purchases.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe a corrective wave or set of waves may form soon, after which the upward trend will likely resume. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new purchases. In my opinion, under Donald Trump, the British pound has every chance of reaching $1.45-$1.50. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar. All of his actions have a dual positive effect: a weaker dollar and the resolution of internal, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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