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The test of the price at 1.1960 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose only by 10 pips before downward pressure returned to the euro.
Despite worsening trade deficits in the US and an increase in the number of citizens applying for unemployment benefits for the first time, the dollar managed to maintain its appeal. This happened amid strong sell-offs in the US stock market and the metals market, where the plunge in gold and silver led to the strengthening of the dollar. However, the negative trade balance, reflecting the dominance of imports over exports, signals a capital outflow from the country and will negatively impact the national currency's exchange rate in the medium term.
Today, figures are expected on changes in Germany's GDP and the currency bloc's GDP, the overall unemployment level in the Eurozone, and the German consumer price index. The markets will pay close attention to the German GDP figure. The unemployment data is also crucial. A decrease in the number of unemployed in Germany and a reduction in the Eurozone's unemployment rate will be seen as positive signals of a strengthening labor market. Conversely, an unexpected increase in unemployment could raise concerns about economic growth prospects. Inflation in Germany will also remain in focus. A decrease in inflation may allow the ECB to continue adhering to its current monetary policy without intervening.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros if the price reaches around 1.1944 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1988. At point 1.1988, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to grow in a bullish market. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1913 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1944 and 1.1988.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the 1.1913 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be 1.1863, where I plan to exit my short positions and buy immediately on the retracement (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Strong pressure on the pair may return today with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1944 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1913 and 1.1863.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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