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On Thursday, the British pound is rising against the Japanese yen amid pressure on the yen amid growing concerns about Japan's fiscal stability, while markets await the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates on Friday.
Along with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision, the yen faces additional risk: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to dissolve Parliament on Friday and hold early elections on February 8. This maneuver aims to bolster her initiatives for economic stimulus and tax relief, including a two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food; however, it raises concerns over the growth of Japan's national debt due to increased spending.
A more accommodative fiscal policy could slow the gradual tightening of interest rates by the Bank of Japan, as rising government borrowings and volatility in the Japanese government bond market increase the likelihood of a sharp rise in debt servicing costs with interest rate hikes. Moreover, the recent sharp yen weakness amplifies inflation risks and the case for policy normalization.
Nevertheless, markets suggest that the Bank of Japan will keep the interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting. It is likely to maintain a cautious stance, leaving room for future increases while avoiding any hints that could further destabilize the Japanese bond market and national currency.
Data on Japan's consumer price index is also in focus ahead of the monetary policy decision.
In the United Kingdom, fresh inflation data from Wednesday showed a 0.4% rise in the overall CPI in December, following a 0.2% decrease in November, while year-on-year inflation accelerated to 3.4% from 3.2%. These figures reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its February meeting, although markets are still pricing in about 50 basis points of easing this year.
From a technical perspective, the pair found good support at the 9-day EMA and nearly reached the round level of 214.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, suggesting the pair's path of least resistance is upward. However, it is worth noting that the relative strength index is close to overbought territory, and the MACD histogram is below the signal line and is slightly flattening, indicating a potential pause.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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