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On Thursday, during the North American session, the euro was strengthening against the US dollar, supported by the broader dollar weakness, as traders ignore positive US economic data. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair has fully recovered from the previous day's losses.
Recent US economic data indicate stable inflation and resilient growth. Core consumer spending for the third quarter increased by 2.9%, matching expectations and the previous quarter's result, while year-on-year GDP for the same period accelerated to 4.4% compared to a forecast of 4.3% and 3.8% in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims fell to 200,000, significantly below the consensus forecast of 212,000, while data for the previous week was revised down to 199,000, indicating a strong labor market.
Inflation measures from the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index confirm a stable price outlook. Core PCE inflation rose by 0.2% on a month-to-month basis in November, in line with the October pace, while the year-on-year figure rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. Overall, PCE also gained 0.2% for the month, while year-on-year growth accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7%, signaling a moderate, but not out-of-control inflation backdrop. Personal income grew by 0.3% (below the expected 0.4% but above the 0.1% rise in October), while personal spending maintained a 0.5% growth rate, indicating continued steady consumer demand.
From a monetary policy perspective, this combination of data strengthens the arguments for a sustained pause by the Federal Reserve. Markets generally do not expect interest rate changes at the January 27-28 meeting, and a Reuters survey shows that 55 of 100 economists predict the first rate cut will occur only in June or later, supporting soft expectations for the Federal Reserve's trajectory. These expectations, combined with ongoing concerns about political interference in the Fed's independence, are putting pressure on the US dollar and limiting the depth of its corrective rise; the US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling, losing the previous day's gains.
Market sentiment is additionally improved by a reduction in trade tensions between the US and the European Union. US President Donald Trump abandoned plans to impose tariffs that were supposed to take effect on February 1, following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, which led to a framework agreement on Greenland and the Arctic region, reducing the risk of escalation in the transatlantic trade conflict and supporting the euro.
In the Eurozone, the latest signals regarding monetary policy from the European Central Bank indicate there is no rush to change rates: officials assessed the inflation forecast as favorable and economic activity as more resilient than previously expected, while emphasizing the need to maintain full freedom of action in either direction at future meetings.
From a technical perspective, the pair is aiming for a January high around 1.1770, with solid support from the 100 and 20-day SMAs. However, it should be noted that oscillators on the daily chart are mixed; nevertheless, the relative strength index is in positive territory, supporting the bulls.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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