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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite actively on Wednesday for New Year's Day. Volatility reached as high as 74 pips, which is, of course, a bit low for the British currency but still significantly higher than for the euro. For most of the day, the pound declined, suggesting a correction was in the offing. But by the end of the day, month, and year, it nevertheless moved back up. Not just "moved back," but "rebounded," which is in itself very important.
In the EUR/USD article, we mentioned an important technical buy signal. For GBP/USD, there were two such signals. The mere fact that buy signals formed on both currency pairs already says a lot. It is no secret that the euro and the pound most often trade in the same direction. Therefore, two identical signals increase the probability that they will work out.
For the pound, the CCI indicator also formed another "bullish" divergence. The seventh or eighth such divergence in recent months, visible even on the 4-hour chart, although this entire period does not even fit on the illustration. Another bullish divergence on an uptrend is a signal of trend continuation. In addition, the CCI entered the oversold area, which is also a buy signal. Thus, on December 31, three buy signals were generated across the euro and the pound in a single day.
This brings us back to the sharp rebound upward on Friday. Such candles are usually reversal patterns and actually indicate liquidity being taken out. Simply put, the price fell to levels where large pending buy orders were placed. The orders triggered — the price shot up. Therefore, we believe that we will already see growth in the pair today, and next week, accompanied by macroeconomic data on the labor market, unemployment, and US business activity, the dollar may well continue to fall.
Recall that, in the medium term, the uptrend remains despite a prolonged, fairly strong correction. The price has crossed the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen on the daily timeframe, which is another signal of an upward trend. Thus, again, everything indicates that the pound will rise and the dollar will fall.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 58 pips. For the pound/dollar, this value is "medium-low." On Friday, January 2, we therefore expect movement inside a range bounded by 1.3396 and 1.3510. The higher linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating trend recovery. The CCI entered oversold territory 6 times in recent months and formed numerous bullish divergences, repeatedly signaling a resumption of the uptrend.
S1 – 1.3428
S2 – 1.3367
S3 – 1.3306
R1 – 1.3489
R2 – 1.3550
The GBP/USD pair is attempting to resume the 2025 uptrend, and its long-term prospects have not changed. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the US currency to appreciate. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term while the price is above the moving average. A price below the moving average allows consideration of small short positions on technical grounds, with targets at 1.3396 and 1.3367. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections (on a global scale), but for the trend to strengthen, it needs signs of an end to the trade war or other global positive factors.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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