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19.12.202508:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 19. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.79 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips.

Today, the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates but provided no clear guidance on the timeline for future monetary policy tightening. Although the central bank, as expected, raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995, the focus is now on Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference. The market expects more definitive statements from Ueda regarding the central bank's plans for further monetary policy tightening. Investors hope to receive signals about how likely and when the BOJ intends to take the next steps toward raising interest rates. The absence of such signals will further disappoint traders and put pressure on the yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 156.13 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 156.59 (thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 156.59, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.82 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 156.13 and 156.59 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.82 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.33 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip reversal from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.13 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 155.82 and 155.33 can be expected.

Chart Overview:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to avoid the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025

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