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On Monday, the euro was appreciating against the US dollar, as the dollar is under pressure after the Federal Reserve lowered the key rate by 25 basis points last week. Currently, the EUR/USD exchange rate is approaching 1.1760, its highest level since early October.
Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is fluctuating near its December lows. The decline in the dollar's value has been significantly influenced by the Fed's moderate statements from Fed Chair Stephen Miran, who expressed a preference for a 50-basis-point cut at the last meeting. He noted that core inflation is nearing the target level of 2%, excluding lagging factors and conditional components, while also warning that political instability remains excessively high.
He added that the rise in housing prices reflects past imbalances between supply and demand rather than current market conditions, and emphasized that accelerating the pace of easing is required to achieve neutral monetary policy.
Regarding economic statistics, the New York Manufacturing Index (Empire State Manufacturing Index) for December showed a sharp slowdown: the reading fell to -3.9, while market expectations were at 10.6, significantly lower than the November reading of 18.7.
To better identify trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the US economic calendar, as upcoming reports are important for shaping expectations of Fed policy through 2026. In focus are the non-farm employment (NFP) reports for October and November, released on Tuesday, as well as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Thursday.
As for the eurozone, there are few eventful news items at the beginning of the week. Industrial production in the eurozone rose by 0.8% in October, exceeding expectations (0.1%) and up from 0.2% previously.
Next, the market will focus on the preliminary PMI results from HCOB and the ZEW economic sentiment survey on Tuesday. The European Central Bank's monetary policy decision is expected on Thursday.
With the ECB maintaining its policy and markets reassessing expectations regarding the Fed's inclination for further monetary easing, the main scenario for the EUR/USD pair remains a rise in value. However, it is worth noting that the relative strength index is close to the overbought zone, warning of a potential correction.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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