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After three rounds of monetary policy easing, it is still impossible to say for certain whether the "cooling" of the U.S. labor market has stopped. There is still no economic data regarding unemployment and payrolls, and the ADP and JOLTs reports are far from the most accurate, relevant, and timely. Therefore, the first conclusions cannot be drawn until next week. However, even those conclusions will not impact the situation. Let me explain what I mean.
For example, the next Nonfarm Payrolls report will show an average figure of around 70,000-80,000 new jobs. Consequently, it can be concluded that the labor market has begun to recover and that further monetary policy easing is unnecessary. Suppose the Nonfarm Payrolls come in again near the zero mark. In that case, the decline has stopped, but there are no improvements. In this case, the Federal Reserve would do well to conduct a fourth consecutive round of rate cuts, but that will not happen.
It will not happen because, in such a scenario, the central bank risks completely losing control over inflation, which could soar uncontrollably. As we discussed in the first review, the Fed will be balancing between its two mandates, and this balancing does not imply any new easing in January. Therefore, whatever results are shown in November reports on inflation, unemployment, and payrolls will not lead to a new round of easing at the next meeting.
So does this mean there will be no further easing? In the near term – no. This would have been very good for the dollar if the market weren't ignoring many other news factors. Recall that over the past five months, the market has mainly traded sideways. Neither the "shutdown," Trump's new tariffs, nor the two rounds of Fed easing had any significant impact. On the contrary, the dollar rose significantly during the "shutdown," and for some reason, the rate cuts in September and October reinforced the American currency. Therefore, the Fed's decision not to conduct a new round of easing at the beginning of next year will not help the dollar. The market already has plenty of factors to get rid of the U.S. currency.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25th figure. The last upward segment of the trend is beginning to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure within a larger wave 5. Therefore, growth can be expected up to the 25th figure mentioned above.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I anticipated the development of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, and the current collection of waves is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, a continuation of price increases can be expected.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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