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The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It is still difficult to call it strong, but in recent months bulls have consistently shown weakness. The Fed's monetary easing has given them additional strength, while bears currently cannot rely on support from the ECB.
On Wednesday, the market could have reacted to the FOMC meeting in various ways, but ultimately chose the most logical one. I remind you that regardless of the FOMC's monetary policy outlook for 2026, "dovish" decisions were made in December, October, and September. Meanwhile, the ECB maintains the status quo. In my view, the US dollar should also have shown a decline in September, October, and November — even just from the standpoint of Fed policy. The market also had other reasons to sell the dollar during those months, yet selling began only in late November. But better late than never. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated that the FOMC does not intend to lower rates again at upcoming meetings because inflation in the US continues to accelerate. The Federal Reserve has done everything possible to save the labor market, lowering rates by a total of 0.75%. Next, attention must shift back to inflation and stabilizing it around 2%, which is still far away. However, important labor market and inflation reports will be released next week in the US, and they may adjust the Fed's plans and market expectations.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1829. A consolidation below 1.1649–1.1680 will again favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports resumed after the shutdown, but for now the available data is outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 250,000, while short positions amount to 143,000.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players had been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the US. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, analysts fear a recession in the US economy, as well as a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure and in light of Jerome Powell's planned resignation in May next year.
News Calendar for the US and the EU:
United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).
On December 11, the economic calendar contains just one entry, and it is completely insignificant. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Thursday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today if a rebound occurs from the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1645–1.1656. Buy trades could have been opened with a target of 1.1718 upon closing above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone. These buy trades can be kept open today. New buy positions — upon closing above 1.1718 — may aim for 1.1795–1.1802.
The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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