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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.35%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.45%.
Global indices are range-bound as Treasury yields rise again, with traders increasingly concerned about the pace of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty regarding the Fed's future actions is fueling nervousness in the market. Investors, frustrated by the lack of key economic data, are trying to guess how quickly the regulator will continue to lower interest rates next year and how aggressive this process will be. Weak macroeconomic indicators could increase pressure on the Fed, prompting it to act more quickly while simultaneously raising concerns about a recession.
The rise in Treasury yields is putting pressure on stocks, particularly technology shares, as higher yields make investments in riskier assets less attractive. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased by 4 basis points, reaching the highest level since September, leading to continued bond sales in Europe and Japan. This creates additional headwinds for the market, which is already facing several challenges, including geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, albeit at a lower scale than last year.
The MSCI All Country World Index declined by 0.1%, while the Asian stocks index lost 0.5%. Futures on American stocks remained unchanged, while contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped slightly.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as tomorrow, but some traders warn that this could signal a slowdown in the pace of monetary policy easing. This is due to persistent high inflation and the lack of fresh data during the longest government shutdown in US history, which has caused disagreements among officials. Following the probable reduction this week, money markets are leaning toward two more rate cuts by the end of 2026, which is less than the three cuts reported just a week ago.
"Investors are taking their chips of the table, waiting for the Fed decision," HSBC Holdings Plc for Asia said. "With lingering uncertainty about the Fed path in 2026, investors will peruse the FOMC's statement and projections especially closely. The more cautious tone of US markets overnight is therefore carrying over into Asia today."
Bitcoin fell by approximately 1.5%. Gold and silver traded within a range following their drop on Monday. Oil stabilized after its steepest decline in almost three weeks, as traders await reports this week to assess the extent of market oversupply.
Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,854. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,874. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,896 mark, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,837. A break below this level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,819 and open the way to $6,792.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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