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The test of the price level at 1.3353 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.
Following the publication of data showing a reduction in initial jobless claims in the United States to their lowest level in over three years, the dollar partially regained its position against the British pound. However, statements from Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council and a Trump adviser, on the advisability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting have dampened the dollar's further growth. Pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates heightens market uncertainty, prompting participants to waver in their forecasts of the dollar's future trajectory.
In the short term, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair will depend on a combination of economic data and political news from both countries. This morning, the Halifax house price index will be released in the United Kingdom. This indicator, considered one of the most significant for assessing the state of the real estate market, is of particular interest to specialists. The information provided by the Halifax index allows for an evaluation of the overall dynamics of property prices. Given that the UK housing market is currently facing challenges due to high interest rates, weak figures could put pressure on the British pound.
For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy pounds today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3353 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3380 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3380, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level. Expecting strong pound growth is only feasible after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3333 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth toward opposing levels of 1.3353 and 1.3380.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell pounds today after the 1.3333 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3309, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pound sellers will likely emerge with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3353 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.3333 and 1.3309.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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