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31.10.202508:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 31

The US dollar has once again strengthened its position against the euro, pound, Japanese yen, and other risk assets. News that the Eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter grew more than expected was simply ignored. It would seem that the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged should have been interpreted positively for euro buyers, but again, nothing happened.

It is evident that the economic outlook for the Eurozone remains cloudy. Despite positive GDP data, many economists believe this is merely a temporary phenomenon. Inflation in the region, although it remains close to the ECB's target, is seeing weakening consumer demand. Furthermore, political uncertainty in several Eurozone countries is also putting pressure on the euro. In Germany, the region's largest economy, growth rates are slowing, and the ruling coalition is facing internal disagreements. In France, despite GDP performing significantly better, political issues are also negatively affecting future growth prospects.

Today, data on changes in Germany's retail sales for September and the Eurozone consumer price index for October are anticipated. If inflation decreases, this will only increase the pressure on the euro. This scenario highlights the fragility of the single currency amid challenging economic conditions. The retail sales data from Germany, as the locomotive of the European economy, serve as an indicator of consumer confidence and, consequently, the overall state of the region's economy. Negative figures will only confirm concerns about slowing growth and will intensify bearish sentiment around the euro. On the other hand, the consumer price index for the Eurozone will determine the ECB's future strategy. Lower inflation rates will confirm the ECB's wait-and-see stance, thereby reducing the euro's attractiveness relative to other currencies with higher interest rates.

Regarding the pound, there are no reports released today, making trading for pound traders even more challenging.

If the data matches economists' expectations, it is better to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data deviates significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1580, which may lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1610 and 1.1636.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1560, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1535 and 1.1489.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3170, which may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3216 and 1.3244.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3130, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3110 and 1.3075.

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buy on a breakout above 154.31, which may lead to a rise in the dollar towards 155.77 and 155.23.
• Sell on a breakout below 153.84, which may lead to a decline in the dollar towards 153.46 and 153.09.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1581 when returning below this level.
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1556 when returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3167 when returning below this level.
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3137 when returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.6567 when returning below this level.
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.6542 when returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.4000 when returning below this level.
• Look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3975 when returning to this level.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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