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17.10.202506:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on October 17? Fundamental Event Review for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Overview:

Once again, Friday's calendar contains very few macroeconomic reports. In earlier reports, we mentioned that there were no releases scheduled at all, but that isn't entirely accurate. Today, the eurozone will publish its second estimate for September inflation. However, this is a secondary report: second estimates almost always match the initial reading and are not marked as "high-impact." Beyond that, there are no notable releases scheduled in the U.K., Germany, or the U.S.

Fundamental Event Overview:

A number of fundamental events are scheduled again for Friday, but nearly all of them are insignificant in terms of market impact. This week saw at least 20 speeches from officials representing the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve—but none of them delivered any market-shaking news.

As previously discussed, both Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell have spoken regularly in recent weeks, giving the market a fairly clear understanding of where central bank policy is heading. The ECB has no intention of cutting rates, as there's currently no need for it. The Fed, meanwhile, appears likely to continue its easing path, as U.S. labor market indicators remain weak. It's also clear that the BoE will not pursue monetary easing in the near future, as inflation in the U.K. has been rising for over a year and currently exceeds the target level by nearly twofold.

Key Takeaways:

As we head into the final trading day of the week, both major currency pairs—EUR/USD and GBP/USD—may continue their upward movements, following recent breakouts above key trendlines. EUR/USD has completed a successful breakout above the 1.1655–1.1666 zone, making long positions still relevant, with room for further upward movement. In the case of GBP/USD, price action has also moved above the 1.3413–1.3421 zone, which opens the door for a rally toward the 1.3466–1.3475 area. With low-impact news expected and technical trends shifting upward, the focus remains on trend continuation for both pairs throughout Friday's session.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it forms (rejection or breakthrough). The quicker the reaction, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false trades occur from the same level, any new signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In flat conditions, many false signals may appear—or none at all. At the first signs of a flat market, consider pausing trading.
4. Trade between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually before the end of the session.
5. On the hourly chart, use MACD signals only when the price is moving within an active trend, supported by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are spaced closely together (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance zone.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels: Targets for long and short trades. Consider these points for setting Take Profit levels.
• Red lines: Trendlines and trend channels used to identify current direction and preferred trading bias.
• MACD (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary indicator for generating trade signals.
• Important speeches and key reports (always listed on the economic calendar) can strongly influence price direction. During these events, trading should be done with extreme caution or avoided altogether to reduce the risk of sharp price reversals.
• Beginner traders should remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and using sound money management principles are the foundations of long-term success in forex trading.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025

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