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06.08.202508:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on August 6. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The first price test at 147.43 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 147.43 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which allowed for the execution of Buy Scenario #2, resulting in a 30-point rise in the pair.

Yesterday's release of the U.S. Services PMI came in weaker than forecast, which temporarily supported the yen, but failed to provide strong momentum for buyers. After a brief dip in USD/JPY, demand for the dollar returned.

Today, Japan published strong wage growth data that exceeded all economists expectations, providing a slight boost to the yen. Rising wages are likely to contribute to higher inflation and could prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Increasing household income also creates favorable conditions for growth in retail sales, investment in new projects, and ultimately, an improved standard of living.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 147.60 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise toward 148.27 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.27, I intend to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level. The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.31 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 147.60 and 148.27 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below 147.31 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.68, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce from that level). It is best to sell from higher levels, focusing on strong resistance areas.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.60 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.31 and 146.68 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025

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