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GBP/USD – 1H Chart
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also stuck in a flat movement, with very low volatility. There were virtually no price movements during the day, no macroeconomic events, while Donald Trump continued to escalate tensions by threatening half the world with new or increased tariffs. The U.S. president also renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell, calling for an immediate rate cut of at least 3%. Nothing new in that regard.
From a technical perspective, the hourly timeframe still shows a downward trend, and the price could soon bounce off the descending trendline. We still do not believe the U.S. dollar will strengthen significantly or for long, so our base scenario remains a breakout above the trendline and a resumption of growth in the British currency.
GBP/USD – 5M Chart
The 5-minute chart on Wednesday clearly reflects the pair's flat behavior. The price moved sideways all day, frequently testing and bouncing from the 1.3574–1.3590 level. Technically, many buy signals were formed throughout the day, so beginners had reasons to enter long positions. However, those trades yielded neither profit nor loss, as the market remained stagnant. It seems a new trend is forming.
How to Trade on Thursday:
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair saw a sharp drop last week, but that was the extent of the dollar's rally. Over the past five days, the U.S. dollar has gained only slightly. In fact, its rise was limited to just one day, despite numerous strong economic reports from the U.S. Therefore, the conclusion remains the same: traders are still not inclined to buy the dollar under current conditions. The recent movement is purely a technical correction.
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair may again trade with low volatility, as no important events are scheduled. A downward trendline has formed on the hourly timeframe, and a breakout above it will signal the return of an upward trend.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the relevant levels for Thursday are: 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3518–1.3535, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763, 1.3814–1.3832.
Thursday's economic calendar is again empty for the UK, while the U.S. will publish the "highly important" report on jobless claims. The market is not currently reacting to Trump's renewed rhetoric, but it seems a new decline in the dollar may be approaching.
Core Rules of the Trading System:
Chart Descriptions:
Reminder for Beginners: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and applying proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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