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The US macro data turned out to be significantly better than expected, preventing the pair from correcting higher. This time, it's about the JOLTS job openings data, expected to decrease to 8.6 million from 8.8 million in the previous period. First of all, the surge in listings follows a revised 8.9 million total for July. Secondly, job openings actually rebounded to 9.6 million in August. It's highly unlikely that this occurred due to mass layoffs; rather, it's likely that workers left their jobs voluntarily. Such a result strongly hints that the report from the U.S. Department of Labor, scheduled for release on Friday, will be much better than expected.
However, the dollar's growth was quite modest. Its excessive overbought condition clearly restrains it from rising further. Nevertheless, the chances of a rebound, at least for today, is quite low. After all, the forecasts for upcoming European data are quite negative. Specifically, the pace of decline in retail sales could accelerate from -1.0% to -1.4%. What's even worse is that the rate of decline in the producer price index could accelerate from -7.6% to -11.6%. This means that inflation will continue to plummet, ruling out the possibility of another interest rate hike by the European Central Bank. Therefore, the euro will likely fall.
The EUR/USD pair managed to stay below the 1.0500 level, despite an obvious technical signal of oversold conditions. This movement reflects bearish sentiment among traders.
The RSI has left the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart. However, on the daily chart, the indicator remains below the 30 level.
On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which is in line with the pair's main direction.
We expect the volume of short positions to increase after the price stays below the 1.0450 level. In this case, the price could fall to the 1.0350 level. As for the corrective move, the price would need to return above the 1.0500 level on the 4-hour chart at least.
Complex indicator analysis indicates a mixed signal in the short-term period due to the consolidation phase. Meanwhile, in the intraday and mid-term periods, the indicators are reflecting a downward cycle.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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