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Although the ongoing inflationary pressures created preconditions for another interest rate hike, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave rates unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed this, mentioning the further tightening of monetary policy during the press conference yesterday.
However, Powell also stated that the bank sees rates nearing the peak, and the labor market already reached satisfying statistics with its increase in unemployment. This implies the bank's concern about overheating, and a slight deterioration in indicators reduces the associated risks.
Of course, all this only shows the first signs of economic improvement, so interest rates may continue to rise, but not necessarily at a slower pace and possibly not as dramatically.
As for the inflation data in the UK, it had virtually no impact on the market, except for a brief spike in volatility. However, the unexpected slowdown in the growth of consumer prices from 6.8% to 6.7%, despite the forecasted increase to 7.1%, adds some intrigue to today's meeting of the Bank of England.
The bank may postpone the planned increase in the refinancing rate from 5.25% to 5.50%, if not abandon it altogether. Although this has little chance of happening, such a scenario will undoubtedly make pound continue to lose ground. But if everything goes according to the previously outlined plan, then it will all depend on the subsequent comments from the Bank of England. Any words indicating the intention to continue raising interest rates will immediately lead to a significant strengthening of pound. A slightly more moderate rhetoric will not lead to any growth, and perhaps, pound may even weaken further.
EUR/USD extended its downward movement, resulting in the quote plummeting by over 100 pips. It hit the level of 1.0620. If the price remains below 1.0600, further weakening will be seen today. However, sharp price changes may also occur, resulting in an oversold status.
GBP/USD experienced a similar cycle of fluctuations, which led to a surge in short positions. This prolonged the downward trend, with the quote falling below the level of 1.2350. Staying under 1.2300 will further increase the volume of short positions, but until then, there may be a rebound above 1.2350.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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