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The USD/CAD pair dropped after reaching the 1.2813 level and after failing to stabilize above the 1.2800 psychological level. Still, the current drop could be only a temporary one. The currency pair retests the immediate downside obstacles. DXY's growth could also help the pair to come back higher.
Today, the fundamentals will drive the markets, so you have to be careful. The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 6.0%, while the Employment Change could be reported at 24.5K versus 153.7K in the previous reporting period. Poor Canadian figures could crash the Loonie.
On the other hand, the US NFP could come in at 426K in December, the Average Hourly Earnings could register a 0.4% growth, while the Unemployment Rate could drop to 4.1%. The USD is under pressure after the ISM Services PMI dropped unexpectedly lower from 69.1 to 62.0, far below 67.0 estimates.
USD/CAD registered only a false breakout with great separation above the 23.6% retracement level and above the 1.28 signaling exhausted buyers. Now, it's trading at 1.2716 right above the 38.2% retracement level. It has retested the downtrend line and now it tries to rebound.
We have a strong support area here. The 38.2%, the downtrend line, and the weekly pivot point (1.2702) represent important downside obstacles. You have to be careful as the volatility will be high around the Canadian and the US data.
Being in a support zone, the USD/CAD pair could try to give birth to new upside momentum. As long as it stays above 38.2% and above the weekly pivot point, the pair could start increasing again, the descending pitchfork's upper median line (UML) is seen as an upside target.
On the contrary, dropping and closing below the immediate support levels could signal a deeper drop.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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