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Today, the dollar is falling as part of the Asian trading session, as the demand for safe currencies turned out to be lower than the recovery in the global stock market, while the euro rose in the hope of resolving the budget crisis in Italy.
Recall that the dollar has been actively growing in the last two trading sessions, as the appetite for risk has declined amid fears of a slowdown in global growth and fueling the trade conflict between the United States and China.
The dollar index fell today by 0.1%, to 96.62. Thus, the indicator lost 0.13 percent compared to the previous trading session.
Analysts believe that the medium-term direction of the dollar will be determined by estimates of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed is expected to announce its fourth rate hike in 2018 in December, but investors are beginning to doubt how many times the Fed can raise the rate next year without risking to slow the growth rate of the US economy, which still persists.
According to a Reuters poll published this week, the median of analysts' forecasts shows three more increases in the Fed's rate next year, to 3.00-3.25% by the end of 2019.
The survey also showed that economists have increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States in the next two years to 35%.
"It is expected that the Fed will go for the next rate increase in December but this meeting is becoming much more focused, as the market is looking for any signals from the regulator," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.
The expert also added that while the Bank of Singapore still expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2019, any changes in the point-to-point policy forecasts could trigger a significant re-evaluation of this forecast.
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