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EUR/USD again traded cautiously on Thursday, despite at least one important event. Yesterday, the European Central Bank released its meeting results and, for the second time in roughly three months, signaled a hawkish stance and outlook. In other words, the ECB raised key rates for the second time in 2026 and indicated that inflation in the eurozone will accelerate due to the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and higher oil prices. Thus, the ECB is ready to carry out further tightening in the future. However, none of this helped the single currency. Instead of the expected rally, the euro fell, and even Christine Lagarde's press conference did not support it. The market may have pre-priced the meeting outcome — it had been known for about two weeks — but that doesn't change the fact that, for the second time, an ECB rate increase did not lead to euro strength. The market continues to ignore euro-positive factors and awaits Federal Reserve tightening.
On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, one buy signal formed. At the start of the US session, price bounced from the 1.1584–1.1594 area, allowing novice traders to open long positions. The euro gained a bit by the end of the day, but overall volatility remained low.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD can resume its upward trend. Considering events over recent months, we believe the euro should continue to rise steadily even without local support. The US dollar currently lacks any growth drivers except the market's near-religious belief in a Fed rate hike.
On Friday, novice traders may open short positions targeting 1.1527–1.1531 if price closes below 1.1584–1.1594. Long positions can be opened targeting 1.1655–1.1665 in the event of a bounce from 1.1584–1.1594.
On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1366–1.1377, 1.1461–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1584–1.1594, 1.1655–1.1665, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1830–1.1837. On Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak again in the eurozone, and the US will release the crucial August CPI report. Volatility today may be above the recent monthly norm.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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