09.09.202609:01 Forex Analyse & Reviews: GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 9. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade review and tips for trading the British pound

The price test of 1.3530 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair rose more than 20 pips.

The pound lost ground after Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey spoke in the House of Commons. The opposition pressed him to rule out pre-budget tax increases, but he offered no direct answer — instead noting that on the eve of a budget no chancellor closes the door on any measures. Traders read that evasiveness as a signal of possible fiscal tightening and began selling the pound. The market logic is understandable: the threat of higher taxes weighs on the pound's appeal.

US data, however, knocked back the dollar's bullish tone. The NFIB index fell to 98.7; hiring plans and profit expectations weakened, and restrained growth in card lending showed Americans reluctant to take on new debt. To me, this fits a Federal Reserve pause scenario, but that reading conflicts with the unexpectedly strong August jobs report, and that split kept the market from moving decisively. The dollar reacted sluggishly and GBP/USD, like many pairs, got stuck in a narrow range amid low volatility.

Today the UK calendar is empty for the first half of the day, so the pound remains at the mercy of external flow. Buyers who were assertive yesterday still have a chance to probe the upper edge of the range, but I doubt a single internal impulse will be enough for a sustained breakout. The key is the upcoming US inflation report. Until it is published, I would not rush to bet on a steady upward exit — without a strong driver, GBP/USD risks continuing to tread water inside tight boundaries.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point around 1.3565 (the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target to rise to 1.3582 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3582, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Expect pound growth today, but I do not expect a strong bullish impulse. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if it tests 1.3551 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in an oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3565 and 1.3582.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3551 level (the red line on the chart) is breached, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3533, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will bring pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3565 when the MACD indicator is in an overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3551 and 1.3533.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.