27.08.202611:46 Forex Analyse & Reviews: GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The British Pound Under Pressure

Today, Thursday, GBP/USD is under pressure and holding steadily below the 14-day EMA at 1.3570. Downward potential is limited, as traders are waiting for additional signals on the trajectory of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates before making new position decisions. Data released the previous day showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year-over-year as of July, remaining at the previous month's level and slightly exceeding consensus forecasts. This indicates that inflation in the United States remains persistent and points to the need for at least one Fed rate hike this year. Such expectations are helping the U.S. dollar hold on to its gains from the previous day, putting pressure on GBP/USD.

At the same time, the U.S. Treasury's bond-buying strategy is keeping U.S. bond yields low. Combined with positive news about a potential agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, this reduces the appeal of the dollar. Moreover, the media report that the United States and Iran are close to reaching a new ceasefire agreement, which is expected to be announced in the coming days. In addition, Iran and Oman have agreed on a temporary maritime route for commercial vessels traveling through the waterway.

However, Gharibabadi warned that the Strait will not fully reopen until the United States fulfills its obligations under the temporary peace agreement reached in June. This maintains a geopolitical risk premium, indirectly putting pressure on the dollar and oil prices. Traders are also exercising caution and prefer to wait for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's scheduled speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which could provide a fresh boost to the dollar.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is holding at 1.3570. However, a sustained break below this level could be viewed as a new signal for the bears. The pair would then find support at the 20-day SMA. On the other hand, the round level of 1.3600 now represents resistance, followed by the 1.3660 level and the August high.

The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar exchange rate against major currencies this week. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar.