24.08.202609:30 Forex Analyse & Reviews: Brent pulls back to $93 after two-week 13% rally

Brent crude fell 1.4% to $93.09 per barrel today, while WTI lost 1.6% to $85.64 per barrel. The pullback follows two weeks of gains during which the benchmark rose about 13% and is up more than 50% year-to-date. The sixth month of the US–Iran conflict is clearly choking global supplies of crude and refined products.

Markets are now awaiting details of a US plan to economically isolate Iran, which Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is due to outline at a press conference this evening. In a recent interview he sought to increase pressure on US allies to join the campaign, identifying the main target as those who buy and transport Iran's oil and urging them to consider the consequences.

Bessent warned that any audacious plan to materially disrupt Iranian oil imports carries significant execution risk and the prospect of retaliation. It remains unclear how the US can significantly ramp up economic pressure on Tehran without targeting China, Iran's main oil buyer, a step that could provoke a serious response.

Physical supply flows are fragmented and full of exceptions. Although visible shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, Iran has allowed some tankers to transit the critical waterway after a request from Baghdad. Both Washington and Tehran continue to claim control of the strait.

The technical picture for oil suggests that buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $86.60. If the price holds above that level, buyers will target $89.60, above which further progress will be difficult. A farther target is $92.56. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $84.40. If they do, a break of the range will inflict serious damage on bulls and push oil toward $81.50, with a prospect of extending to $78.70.