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Bitcoin declined yesterday from the $65,000 level. Ethereum followed suit, declining by more than 2.5% to around $1,870.
This indicates that recent spot purchases at market prices have lost all momentum, and overall turnover on centralized exchanges remains muted. The institutional component of the recovery looks less convincing now. A reduction in sales from hedgers represents a stabilizing factor, directly correlating with the previously recorded decline in the implied volatility index (BVIV) to a low since September.
Institutional holders and miners, who actively sold call options through systematic repricing programs throughout the summer, are gradually reducing the pressure of this strategy on the market. However, rising geopolitical tensions around Iran and the further strengthening of oil prices create additional obstacles to purchasing risk assets.
All this suggests that the $65,500-$67,000 zone remains serious resistance, as holders who previously bought at these levels appear to be using price rebounds to reduce their positions, thereby limiting growth potential even amid ongoing inflows into ETFs.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $64,000, targeting a rise to the $64,300 level. Near $64,300, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be done from the lower boundary of $63,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the $64,000 and $64,300 levels.
Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,800, targeting a drop to the $63,500 level. Near $63,500, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be done from the upper boundary of $64,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the $63,800 and $63,500 levels.
Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,874, targeting a rise to the $1,885 level. Near $1,885, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be done from the lower boundary of $1,868 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the $1,874 and $1,885 levels.
Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,868, targeting a drop to the $1,857 level. Near $1,857, I will exit the sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be done from the upper boundary of $1,874 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the $1,868 and $1,857 levels.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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