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Today, Friday, gold (XAU/USD) reached a new daily high, and bulls continue to try to build momentum by breaking above the $4,300 level. Gold is showing its best weekly performance since January.
US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday that the war with Iran would end soon. However, Saudi Arabian officials said that some Iraqi militias operating in cooperation with the Houthis in Yemen are planning an attack on the kingdom in the near future. This raises the risk of a broader regional conflict and prompts traders to factor in a geopolitical risk premium, which is expected to support the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and could limit the upside in gold prices.
Additionally, there are reports that Iran is revising a framework agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz that would prohibit US, Israeli, and hostile vessels from passing through until compensation is paid. This effectively reduces hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the five-month military conflict between the US and Iran. Moreover, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, which once again raised concerns about disruptions to energy supplies, supported oil prices, and increased inflation concerns.
According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders still assess the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by the end of this year at more than 80%. This creates additional obstacles for gold bulls and calls for caution when establishing positions in anticipation of a continued recovery in XAU/USD from the psychological $4,000 level.
Meanwhile, traders appear to be avoiding aggressive positions, preferring to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These key data will influence market expectations regarding Fed policy and could boost demand for the US dollar, which in turn will affect gold prices. Additionally, the People's Bank of China reported that its official gold reserves stood at $306.35 billion at the end of July, up from $303.72 billion at the end of June.
From a technical perspective, if prices consolidate above the 200-day EMA or above the round $4,300 level, the bulls will have a good chance of moving toward the round $4,500 level or the 200-day SMA, with the 100-day SMA acting as an obstacle along the way. However, if prices fail to hold the round $4,300 level, they will find support at $4,220. At the same time, the oscillators are mixed, indicating that the positive momentum has not yet been fully confirmed. Although the Relative Strength Index is positive, indicating that the bulls have gained strength and have a positive outlook.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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