07.08.202613:12 Forex Analyse & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 7 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

None of the levels I indicated were tested during the first half of the day, as traders paused ahead of the important data.

All this suggests that the euro is approaching the release of the U.S. employment report with cautious anticipation, as this set of data could change the course of trading at the end of the week. The key figure will be the change in nonfarm employment, which is considered a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data will also be released. The employment report is important because it directly affects expectations for the Fed's interest rate, as a strong labor market gives the regulator more room to tighten monetary policy.

The market will pay particular attention to wage growth, as faster wage growth signals persistent inflationary pressure and strengthens the case for a restrictive policy stance. The agenda will also include a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin, as any indication of the regulator's future steps could cause a sharp move in the pair. Taken together, these events create a busy backdrop against which the single currency will face increased volatility.

For the euro, the implications are straightforward. Strong data will increase demand for the dollar and raise the likelihood of a rate hike, putting pressure on EUR/USD and potentially interrupting its recent attempts to rise. A weak result, by contrast, will favor the single currency by weakening the U.S. dollar and restoring interest in risk assets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1533 (the green line on the chart), with a target of a rise toward 1.1556. At 1.1556, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be expected today following weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1517 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1533 and 1.1556 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1517 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1490, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return following strong data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1533 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1517 and 1.1494 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.