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Bitcoin has recovered to around $64,400 today, while Ethereum has risen above the $1,900 level.
Ahead of the important Federal Reserve meeting, where there is considerable uncertainty, the market engaged in short squeezes, pushing out shorts and creating a squeeze before the actual reaction to future changes in Fed policy. While many market participants agree that the committee will keep rates unchanged today, the possibility of a rate hike still exists, which could lead to an immediate sell-off of risk assets, including those in the cryptocurrency market.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at 35.8%, a noticeable increase from 25.7% a week prior, whereas Polymarket estimates this risk slightly lower at around 25%. Both indicators point in the same direction, indicating that the probability of an unexpected hawkish decision is real and continues to grow. However, much will depend on Chairman Waller. The market well remembers his June press conference, where his unexpectedly hawkish tone sent the probability of a rate hike to 70%, and the yield on two-year Treasury bonds jumped by 16 basis points.
The market is also under pressure from several parallel factors. The delayed voting on the CLARITY Act deprived the crypto market of its last legislative wind at a time when it was especially needed. The recent sell-off of tech and semiconductor stocks across Asia and the US, including a 4% drop in Nikkei and a more than 12% plunge in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is also dragging down the cryptocurrency market.
Regarding short-term trading, strategies and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $64,500, with a target of $64,900. Around $64,900, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on a rebound (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is also possible from the lower boundary of $64,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $64,500 and $64,900.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $64,200 with a target for the price drop to $63,600. Around $63,600, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy on a rebound (anticipating a 20-25 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is also possible from the upper boundary of $64,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $64,200 and $63,600.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,920, with a target of $1,945. Around $1,945, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on a rebound (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum is also possible from the lower boundary of $1,907 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $1,920 and $1,945.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,907 with a target for the price drop to $1,886. Around $1,886, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy on a rebound (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum is also possible from the upper boundary of $1,920 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $1,907 and $1,886.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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