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In America, information from The New York Times has started to spread that Washington is desperately seeking ways to exit the war with Iran. In my opinion, there's nothing strange about this, as Trump urgently needs to conclude the war to have a chance of winning at least one chamber of Congress in the upcoming elections. As I said, it is the US president who must strive to find a way out of the current situation, and time is working for Iran, not against it.
The tabloid provided three possible scenarios for concluding the war. The first is a new military escalation, increasing military pressure on Iran. Frankly, I don't quite understand how a new escalation can be considered "ending the war," especially since all previous attacks on Iran have not brought Trump any closer to an agreement by even a centimeter. The second option is to increase the sanctions pressure on Iran. I also see no sense in this, as Iran has lived under sanctions for 50 years. The third scenario (which I believe is the most realistic) is the announcement of complete victory and the withdrawal of American troops from the region.
Let's examine this scenario and understand what it would actually mean. As I said, Trump cannot exit the conflict defeated, although that is precisely how it will essentially be in almost any case. Trump needs a victory that could be sold to Americans before the elections or at least not to lose face. If the war is concluded, the anger of American voters will begin to wane in proportion to gas prices. Consequently, even a simple conclusion of the war would significantly increase the likelihood of Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress.
However, this would effectively mean a complete defeat for Trump personally. Not for the American troops, but for Trump himself. American troops followed orders, and it's not their fault that they are given impossible tasks, and their actions do not yield the results the White House expects. Many military experts express the same thought: in five months of war, Washington has not achieved any of the operation's objectives. The third scenario would mean that America leaves Iran with its nuclear arsenal, the ability to create missiles with nuclear warheads, and agrees to Tehran's full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, the outcome of Trump's military campaign would even be negative, because before the war, Hormuz was open and free.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend section, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward trend section. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions, although the instrument may still drop to the 13th figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often presents surprises, so I would start adjusting for long positions right now.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has taken on a rather complex form. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, and for EUR/USD, five waves may be constructed. Accordingly, the pound may build one more wave down, just like the euro, but this wave could be the second within the new upward trend section. Thus, the divergence in wave patterns between the euro and the pound will exist, but it will be insignificant and minor. Based on this, the downward correction may continue for some time, after which I expect the formation of wave 3 of the new upward trend section with targets located around the 37-38 figures.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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