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Trade Review and Trading Advice for the European Currency
The price test at 1.1391 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.
The U.S. trading session is expected to be more volatile, with the release of important economic data. A key focus will be the U.S. trade balance. Data on the difference between exports and imports will provide insight into the competitiveness of U.S. goods globally and may influence dollar dynamics. Investors will also focus on the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. This is a leading indicator reflecting households' expectations regarding future economic conditions, personal income, and inflation. At the same time, inflation expectations data will be released. Consumer forecasts for future inflation are an important factor in Federal Reserve decision-making. Regarding the Fed, in addition to economic data, speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Neel Kashkari will also be important. Their comments on current economic conditions, inflation prospects, and future monetary policy directions may provide valuable signals for the U.S. dollar and traders.
As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible at a price around 1.1416 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1458. At 1.1458, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if the price tests 1.1395 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels at 1.1416 and 1.1458 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1395 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1358, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the euro if the price tests 1.1416 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels at 1.1395 and 1.1358 can be expected.
What is shown on the chart:
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before the release of major fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if risk management is not applied and large trading volumes are used.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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