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Brent closed at its lowest level since the start of the Middle East war, but that did not prevent the S&P 500 from slipping. A tech-led sell-off pushed the broad index into the red for a second consecutive day.
Wall Street expects S&P 500 company earnings to rise about 20% for a second straight quarter. A sizable portion of that gain, however, reflects an accounting mismatch. When NVIDIA sells chips, it recognises revenue and profit immediately, while many of its customers capitalize purchases as fixed assets. Therefore, the seller records earnings now, while the buyer spreads the cost over years. Follow the link for more details.
Manufacturing activity in the US has risen to its highest level since 2021, underscoring economic strength and reinforcing the Fed's conviction that policy needs to be tighter. Futures are now pricing in roughly a 70% chance of an interest rate hike in September.
At the same time, companies in the sector are beginning to cut prices, and investors worry about the scale of borrowing required to build data-center capacity. As AI models become commoditized and demand shifts toward lower-cost solutions, concerns grow that massive infrastructure outlays may be less remunerative than investors assumed. Follow the link for more details.
Morgan Stanley describes the current phase as a "golden window where everything looks good," but cautions that the picture could change quickly. Once deferred costs start surfacing in hyperscalers' clients' accounts, the accounting-driven boost to reported earnings may evaporate.
If Middle East de-escalation and lower oil prices fail to offset the Fed's hawkish stance and doubts over AI monetization, that "golden window" could shut far sooner than S&P bulls expect. Follow the link for more details.
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