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Bitcoin traded at $65,500 yesterday, and today it is testing lows around $62,600. Ethereum is also facing difficulties, as chances for a quick bounce back after dropping near $1,680 are low.
After Bitcoin fell to around $62,600 today, it triggered a wave of forced liquidations: in just one hour, over $170 million in long positions were liquidated from the market. The scale of these liquidations indicates that the market was overloaded with bullish bets in an environment that does not favor them. Recall that the Federal Reserve, under new chair Warsh, signaled a tough stance, with no rate cuts until the end of 2026; the Iranian ceasefire remains unfinalized; and the 30-day outflow from Bitcoin ETFs has reached a record $6.35 billion. Opening long positions in such an environment without protective stops meant playing against all structural factors at once.
It's worth noting that the drop to $62,600 brings Bitcoin closer to levels where the main risks of the next wave of pressure are concentrated. CryptoQuant pointed to $48,000 as a potential lower-cycle level, according to the CVDD model. The average purchase price for investors is around $53,000, and historically, bearish cycles do not end without testing this area. On the other hand, long-term holders are still not selling, and the volume of transfers to exchanges remains at a low since 2015, while miner capitulation, which JPMorgan has recently highlighted, has historically preceded the reversal.
Today's liquidation of long positions clears the market of weak positions, but without a positive catalyst, this is merely a technical release of pressure, not a reversal signal.
In this context, it is too early to say that the market has found a bottom or is ready for recovery.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,100 with a target to rise to the level of $64,000. Around $64,000, I will exit the buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can buy Bitcoin off the lower boundary at $62,600 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $63,100 and $64,000.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $62,600 with a target to fall to the level of $61,700. Around $61,700, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy back on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can sell Bitcoin off the upper boundary at $63,100 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $62,600 and $61,700.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,968 with a target to rise to the level of $1,717. Around $1,717, I will exit the buy positions and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can buy Ethereum off the lower boundary at $1,684 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $1,698 and $1,717.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,684 with a target to fall to the level of $1,662. Around $1,662, I will exit the sell positions and immediately buy back on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario No. 2: I can sell Ethereum off the upper boundary at $1,698 if there is no market reaction to a breakout back towards the levels of $1,684 and $1,662.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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