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US stock indices rose solidly last Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.50%, the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.70%.
The new week begins with favorable news. It emerged that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time the SpaceX IPO proceeded smoothly: shares closed on Friday at $160.95, up 19% from the offering price. The company's market capitalization on the first day of trading was about $2.2 trillion—placing it sixth among the largest public companies in the world.
SpaceX opened at $150, at one point rose more than 30%, and then partially retraced. More than 522 million shares changed hands during the day — comparable with the $75 billion size of the offering. The market absorbed the largest IPO in history without visible strain, which is an important signal in its own right. For Anthropic and OpenAI, which may come to market this year with valuations of roughly $1 trillion each, a successful SpaceX debut clears a path. A flop, by contrast, would have chilled the entire AI-IPO pipeline for months.
Nevertheless, some investors prefer to wait. Index fund holders will soon receive a stake in SpaceX through inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and can therefore afford to await a correction and enter on the secondary market at a discount. The history of mega-IPOs offers no comfort: according to Truist Wealth, the average drawdown after a debut is 55% within a year. Cerebras Systems — the second-largest IPO of the year — rose 68 percent on its first day but has since fallen more than 30 percent.
This week will host the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh and his first post-meeting press conference. Rates are expected to remain unchanged by consensus, but markets will dissect every word from the new chair under a microscope. President Trump has repeatedly signaled he wants aggressive rate cuts, and a peace agreement with Iran strengthens that case: oil prices should fall, inflation should moderate, and pressure on the Fed would increase. How Warsh will balance the Fed's independence against political expectations is the key question for Wednesday.
A technical outlook for the S&P 500 suggests that the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome resistance at $7,547. Doing so would demonstrate upside momentum and open the way to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,607 will further strengthen the buyers' position. If risk appetite falls and the market moves lower, buyers must defend the $7,518 area; a break below that level will quickly push the index back to $7,494 and open the path to $7,474.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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