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The price test at 1.1571 coincided with the MACD indicator well below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.
Today, the US dollar has declined, and the euro received a boost for growth following news of a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran. The dollar's decline, traditionally considered a safe haven during periods of uncertainty, reflects increased confidence among traders in global stability. Market participants interpreted the news as a significant step toward reducing geopolitical tensions in one of the world's key regions.
The euro immediately showed confident growth. The strengthening of the European currency is due to several factors. First, the reduction of geopolitical risks lowers the uncertainty that has negatively affected the European economy. Second, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz may facilitate the activation of international trade, which is beneficial for European exporters. Third, falling oil prices will lead to reduced inflation in the region.
Today, in the first half of the day, market participants will focus on eurozone data. The trade balance report, showing the difference between exports and imports of goods, is a key indicator of economic activity in the region. A positive balance exceeding forecasts could signal a strengthening of competitiveness among European producers in the global market and, consequently, provide support for the European currency. Similarly, data on changes in industrial production, which reflect dynamics in one of the economy's most important sectors, will be closely analyzed. Growth in production, especially in key industries such as machinery and chemicals, will serve as a positive signal for the overall economic situation.
In the second half of the day, the focus will shift to statements from European Central Bank representatives. Speeches by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and ECB President Christine Lagarde could significantly influence market sentiment. Market participants will closely monitor any hints regarding future monetary policy, assessments of the current economic situation, and forecasts.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1622 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1663. At 1.1663, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect euro growth only after strong data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1598 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1663.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1598 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1560, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return only in case of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1622 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1598 and 1.1560.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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