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Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on its moderate recovery from the lows recorded earlier on Thursday, which marked the lowest levels since November 2025. The precious metal is currently holding near the $4,100 level.
From a technical perspective, the recent break below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), along with the decline to a new February low, strengthens the bearish outlook for XAU/USD.
The MACD indicator remains deeply in negative territory, confirming the dominance of bearish sentiment. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals oversold conditions, which may indicate a potential slowdown in downward momentum despite the persistent selling pressure.
The nearest resistance is located near the broken lower boundary of the downward channel, around $4,250. Further resistance levels include the 200-day EMA and SMA at $4,444, followed by the psychological level of $4,500 and then the 50-day SMA near $4,630.
As long as the price remains below these levels, sellers are likely to retain control of the market, and any upward moves will most likely be viewed as corrective rebounds rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.
Immediate support is located at $4,015. A break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the $3,900 level.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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