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When there is no consensus among comrades, their matters will not go smoothly. Donald Trump announced a truce between Israel and Hezbollah, but the Tehran-supported organization violated it. The U.S. president convinced the Israelis not to attack Iran anymore, which they did. However, Jerusalem does not intend to give up attacking Beirut. The events occurring in the Middle East have investors feeling dizzy. It is clear that one should not expect a swift opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, EUR/USD will remain under pressure.
The combination of rising geopolitical risks and strong U.S. macroeconomic data created an ideal environment for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Oil prices rose amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Iran is dictating its terms to the White House. It demands payment for the transit of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and links the deal with Washington to Israel's commitment not to attack Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon. Why?
Tehran is skillfully playing on Trump's desires. The U.S. president is under pressure from American voters who are extremely dissatisfied with events in the Middle East. Republicans risk losing elections in the fall. It is not surprising that the White House is trying in every way to tame militant Israel.
However, Netanyahu has his own elections. The opposition calls him an American puppet and claims that he has sold Israel's sovereignty.
As a result, a Gordian knot is created, which Trump has yet to untangle. This indicates further closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the risk of a rally in Brent prices and strengthening the U.S. dollar amid talks of an increase in the federal funds rate. The futures market indicates a 75% probability that this will happen in 2026. The chances of two acts of monetary restriction are estimated at 32%.
High demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are far from the only strong points for the "bears" on EUR/USD. The U.S. economy looks much better than the European one, partly because of its geographic distance from the two largest armed conflicts of the 21st century — in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Strong data on the U.S. labor market confirms this. From March to May, private-sector employment grew by an average of 188,000 jobs. This marks the indicator's dynamics returning to their highest levels since March 2024. Thus, the difficulties in the labor market at the end of 2025, when the Fed was lowering rates, were temporary, driven by tariffs, anti-immigration policies, and mass cuts in government employment. These difficulties have now been overcome.
Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is attempting to find a bottom for the "bulls" after the most significant blow in three months. Key resistances are near the pivot level of 1.1555 and the lower boundary of fair value at 1.1575. A rebound from these levels will provide a basis for increasing previously opened shorts.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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