14.05.202618:30 Forex Analyse & Reviews: Intraday Trading Strategies for Beginner Traders – May 14th

Demand for the U.S. dollar weakened, although this did not lead to renewed interest in risk assets. Most currencies traded rather quietly during the first half of the day, reflecting overall market uncertainty.

The absence of important eurozone statistics kept the EUR/USD pair within a narrow trading range. Traders, lacking new data to justify a directional move, preferred a wait-and-see approach, holding positions near the 1.1710 level. This reflects uncertainty in the market and the absence of clearly defined bullish or bearish sentiment.

The British pound attempted to gain momentum following strong UK GDP data, but it also failed to receive significant support from major market participants.

Going forward, attention will shift to U.S. retail sales data, as well as speeches by FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Beth M. Hammack. Recently, central bank representatives have increasingly expressed support for a tighter monetary policy stance, so traders should remain cautious. Retail sales figures are considered one of the key indicators of the health of the U.S. economy, reflecting consumer activity and, consequently, overall economic growth.

The retail sales data is expected to provide the market with additional clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps — especially following the latest inflation figures. If the data comes in stronger than forecasts, this could strengthen arguments for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period, which would place additional pressure on EUR/USD and other risk-sensitive assets.

At the same time, speeches by FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Beth M. Hammack will be carefully analyzed for any hints regarding future monetary policy. Comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially concerning inflation and labor market conditions, may provide insight into possible shifts in the central bank's rhetoric.

If the data matches economists' expectations, it is better to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading)

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1720 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1750 and 1.1770;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1700 may lead to euro declines toward 1.1675 and 1.1654;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3530 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3555 and 1.3585;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3505 may lead to pound declines toward 1.3480 and 1.3455;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 157.95 may lead to dollar growth toward 158.39 and 158.79;
• Selling on a breakout below 157.65 may lead to dollar selloffs toward 157.20 and 156.96;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal Trading)

For EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1725 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1700 followed by a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3531 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3500 followed by a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7265 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7238 followed by a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3718 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3699 followed by a return above this level;