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Bitcoin and Ethereum saw significant sell-offs yesterday, prompting the liquidation of large long positions in the futures market. Currently, Bitcoin has slightly recovered and is trading just below $80,000. Ethereum has also gained slightly, hovering around $2,267.
There is a clear predominance of bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, reflected in a significant volume of open short positions across leading assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. This trend indicates that the majority of market participants expect further price declines, betting on a falling rate.
The situation appears quite tense, especially considering the potential liquidation volumes. In the event of a sharp and unexpected rise in Bitcoin's price to $87,900, the volume of short position liquidations could exceed $4,890,000,000. Such large-scale liquidations can trigger a snowball effect, further pushing the price up and potentially creating a "short squeeze."
A similar picture is observed with Ethereum. When the price of ETH reaches around $2,500, the volume of short position liquidations could exceed $3,360,000,000. This scenario also carries the risk of a sudden upward price movement, triggered by the mass closure of short positions.
Regarding the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of the continued development of a bullish market in the long term, which remains intact.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry price around $80,100, targeting a move to $80,600. At around $80,600, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $79,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $80,100 and $80,600.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry price around $79,600, targeting a drop to $78,800. At around $78,800, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $80,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $79,600 and $78,800.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry price around $2,273, targeting a move to $2,294. At around $2,294, I will exit the buy trades and immediately sell on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,261 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,273 and $2,294.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry price around $2,261, targeting a drop to $2,233. At around $2,233, I will exit the sell trades and immediately buy on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,273 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,261 and $2,233.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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